How to read prediction market odds
A primer on implied probability, no-vig conversion, and why Polymarket and Kalshi prices behave differently from sportsbook lines.
PillarLab AI Blog
Strategy, frameworks, and lessons learned from running thousands of analyses on Polymarket and Kalshi event contracts.
What we write about
When to trust polling vs. when to trust the market
A field guide for political markets — how to weigh poll aggregators against live event-contract prices and where each one tends to fail.
Building an edge with multi-pillar analysis
Walks through stacking domain pillars to triangulate a directional view that no single framework would catch on its own.
Sharp vs square money on Polymarket
How to spot informed flow versus narrative-driven trading, and why the distinction matters more in event markets than in sports betting.
Resolving sources: how the right data source decides everything
Most market arguments are really arguments about whose data resolves the contract. A tour through how the best pillars handle source disputes.
Calibrating confidence for AI market analysis
Why every pillar in PillarLab returns a structured edge with confidence — and how to use it without overweighting the model.
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