Ball Carrier Dominance Metrics

Overview

This pillar analyzes the physical effectiveness of ball carriers in rugby, specifically focusing on their ability to generate momentum through and after defensive contact. It separates raw yardage from hard-fought gainline success.

What It Does

It processes play-by-play data to isolate individual carry events, measuring the distance gained after the first point of defensive contact. It calculates the frequency of broken tackles and evaluates success rates in crossing the gainline against organized defensive structures.

Why It Matters

Standard 'meters gained' stats can be misleading if achieved in open play against broken fields. By isolating dominance metrics, this pillar predicts which players will thrive against high-pressure, rush defenses, offering a significant edge in player prop markets and handicap trading.

How It Works

The model ingests optical tracking data and event logs to map the coordinates of the receive point, contact point, and tackle point. It aggregates these deltas to compute 'yards after contact' and cross-references them with defensive density to generate a 'Dominance Score' for each player.

Methodology

Calculates (End_Coordinate - Contact_Coordinate) for all carries > 0.5s duration. Aggregates data over a rolling 5-match window, weighted by opposition defensive efficiency (tackle completion rate). Normalized using z-scores relative to position groups (Forward vs. Back).

Edge & Advantage

Markets often overprice volume (total carries) and underprice efficiency (gainline success); this pillar identifies players capable of covering spreads through sheer physical disruption.

Key Indicators

• Post-Contact Meters (PCM)

  high

  Average distance gained after the first defender makes contact.

• Defenders Beaten Ratio

  high

  Number of tackles broken divided by total carries.

• Gainline Success %

  medium

  Percentage of carries that advance beyond the advantage line.

Data Sources

• Opta / Stats Perform

  Granular event data regarding tackles and gainlines.

• League Official Match Reports

  Official carry and tackle statistics.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will [Player Name] exceed 45.5 rushing meters in the match?
• → Will [Player Name] score a try in the first half?
• → Which team will have the highest gainline success rate?

Tags