Bullpen High-Leverage Availability

Overview

This pillar analyzes the physical availability of high-leverage MLB relief pitchers by tracking recent workload. It identifies when teams are vulnerable in late innings due to exhausted closers or setup men.

What It Does

The system aggregates pitch counts and game appearances over a rolling 3 to 5 day window for every relief pitcher. It assigns fatigue scores based on total pitches thrown, back-to-back usage, and high-stress innings. It flags bullpens as fresh, strained, or critical.

Why It Matters

Bullpen performance correlates directly with late-game run scoring and win probability. Knowing a star closer is unavailable allows bettors to identify value in opponent moneylines or live over totals before the market adjusts.

How It Works

We scrape box scores and pitch logs immediately following game completion. The algorithm applies a decay function to recent pitch counts to calculate a Fatigue Index. If a team's primary closer exceeds the fatigue threshold, the model projects the next available arm and recalculates the team's defensive rating.

Methodology

Calculates a Fatigue Score (FS) where FS equals (Today's Pitches) plus (Yesterday's Pitches * 1.5) plus (Day Before Pitches * 0.8). An FS over 45 indicates unavailability. We also factor in 'warmups without entering' which adds a 10% fatigue penalty. Data is updated daily at 9 AM ET.

Edge & Advantage

Markets often price lines based on starting pitching and offense while overlooking bullpen depletion. This creates exploitable inefficiencies in live trading and late-game totals.

Key Indicators

• S3 Score (Simulated 3-Day)

  high

  Weighted sum of pitches thrown over the last 3 days

• Consecutive Day Flag

  high

  Indicates if a pitcher has thrown in 2 or more straight games

• Leverage Index Exposure

  medium

  Measures the stress level of recent innings pitched

Data Sources

• MLB Official Stats API

  Real-time pitch counts and substitution logs

• Brooks Baseball

  Pitch f/x data and velocity tracking for fatigue signs

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will the Yankees bullpen allow a run in the 8th inning or later?
• → Will the total runs score Over 8.5 in the Dodgers vs Padres game?
• → Who will win the game (Live Moneyline top of the 7th)?

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