Depth Chart Stability Index

Overview

This pillar analyzes the stability and cohesion of a rugby team's starting lineup. It measures how frequently the current starting XV have played together, providing a data-driven look at on-field chemistry and coordination.

What It Does

The Depth Chart Stability Index calculates a score based on the collective experience of the announced starting lineup. It examines historical match data to count the number of times the players have started together, with special weight given to crucial positional units like the half-back pairing and the 'spine' of the team. A higher score indicates a more settled, experienced unit.

Why It Matters

Team cohesion is a powerful, yet often overlooked, factor in match outcomes. This pillar provides a quantifiable measure of synergy that can predict performance beyond individual player statistics, highlighting teams that are likely to execute their game plan more effectively under pressure.

How It Works

First, the announced starting XV for an upcoming match is identified. The system then queries historical match data over the past 24 months to find how many games those 15 players have started together. It also calculates experience scores for key partnerships and units, which are weighted and combined into a final normalized stability index.

Methodology

The index is calculated by summing the number of shared starts for every player pair within the starting XV over a rolling 24-month window. This sum is then normalized against the team's total matches played in that period. Key partnerships (e.g., 9-10, 4-5) and the core spine (2, 8, 9, 10, 15) receive a 1.5x weighting in the final calculation.

Edge & Advantage

It provides an edge by quantifying team synergy, a qualitative factor that trading markets often undervalue compared to raw team statistics or individual player form.

Key Indicators

• Lineup Turnover Rate

  high

  The number of changes to the starting XV from the previous match.

• Key Partnership Experience

  high

  The total number of caps shared by crucial pairings, like the centers or half-backs.

• Spine Cohesion Score

  medium

  A weighted score for the combined experience of the hooker, number 8, scrum-half, fly-half, and fullback.

Data Sources

• ESPN Scrum

  Provides historical match data, team sheets, and player statistics.

• Official League Websites

  Official sources for confirmed team lineups and match history (e.g., Premiership Rugby, URC).

• Stats Perform

  A professional sports data provider offering detailed historical game data.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will Ireland beat France in the upcoming Six Nations match?
• → Will the Crusaders cover the -7.5 point spread against the Blues?
• → Will South Africa win the Rugby World Cup?

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