Fight Camp Pedigree & Win Rate

Overview

This pillar analyzes the historical success and current momentum of a fighter's training camp. It moves beyond individual stats to quantify the impact of coaching, sparring partners, and team-wide performance on a fight's outcome.

What It Does

It aggregates fight results from all fighters associated with a specific gym, like American Top Team or City Kickboxing, over a rolling 12-month period. The pillar calculates the camp's overall win percentage, adjusting for the quality of competition faced. It also factors in the track record of head coaches and the recent success of top-tier training partners.

Why It Matters

A fighter from a 'hot' camp with a high win rate often has a hidden advantage from superior game planning and elite training. This pillar uncovers that momentum, providing a predictive edge that individual fighter stats alone cannot capture.

How It Works

First, the fighter's primary camp is identified. Then, we collect all official fight results for every fighter from that camp over the last 12 months. A weighted win-rate is calculated based on opponent quality. Finally, this is combined with coach-specific data to generate a comprehensive Camp Pedigree Score.

Methodology

A Camp Momentum Score (CMS) is calculated using a rolling 12-month window. The formula is CMS = (Sum of Weighted Wins / Total Fights) * 100. Wins are weighted based on the opponent's ranking and the event's prestige (e.g., a UFC title fight win is weighted higher than a regional promotion win). The score also incorporates a 'Championship Experience' factor for coaches.

Edge & Advantage

It quantifies the impact of the training environment, a critical factor that most bettors only consider anecdotally or ignore completely.

Key Indicators

• Camp Win Rate (12-Month)

  high

  The rolling 12-month win percentage for all fighters from a specific gym.

• Head Coach Corner Record

  medium

  The win/loss record of the primary coach in high-stakes fights like main events or title bouts.

• Top Sparring Partner Performance

  high

  The recent success of a fighter's main training partners, indicating the quality of daily preparation.

Data Sources

• Tapology

  Provides comprehensive fighter records, event data, and gym affiliations.

• Sherdog

  A large database of fighter profiles, fight histories, and team information.

• UFC Stats

  Official fight statistics and records for the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will Islam Makhachev defeat his opponent at the next UFC event?
• → Will a fighter from City Kickboxing win a championship by the end of the year?
• → Will American Top Team have a winning record across all their fighters in the next 3 months?

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