Weather_climate core tier
intermediate
Reliability 95/100
Historical Base Rate Anchor
Anchor probabilities to long-run station climatology.
Overview
Weather market framework focused on NOAA station climatology.
What It Does
Analyzes NOAA station climatology using meteorological and market data to estimate contract probability with explicit uncertainty handling.
Why It Matters
Helps identify mispricing where market odds diverge from evidence-based weather probability for NOAA station climatology.
Use Historical Base Rate Anchor on a real market
Run this analytical framework on any Polymarket or Kalshi event contract.
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