Level of Competition Adjustment

Overview

This pillar looks beyond a simple win-loss record to evaluate the true skill of a fighter by adjusting their stats based on the quality of opponents they have faced. It helps identify overrated fighters with padded records and underrated contenders tested against elite competition.

What It Does

It analyzes a fighter's complete fight history, assigning a quality score to each past opponent based on their rank, record, and performance at the time of their bout. This score is then used to weight the fighter's key performance indicators, creating a competition-adjusted rating. This provides a more accurate picture of a fighter's capabilities than raw statistics alone.

Why It Matters

A 10-0 record against unranked opponents is not the same as a 7-3 record against top contenders. This pillar provides the critical context needed to avoid common trading traps and spot valuable underdogs whose losses came against the division's best.

How It Works

First, the system gathers the fight history for both competitors in an upcoming match. For every past fight, it calculates an 'Opponent Quality Score' based on that opponent's ranking and win rate. Key performance stats, like strikes landed per minute, are then multiplied by this quality score. Finally, these adjusted stats are aggregated to generate a final 'Competition Adjusted Rating' for each fighter.

Methodology

Opponent Quality Score (OQS) is calculated for each of the last 10 opponents: OQS = (Opponent Win Percentage * 0.6) + (Rank Bonus * 0.4). The Rank Bonus is a value from 0 to 1, where a top 5 opponent is ~0.9 and an unranked opponent is ~0.1. A fighter's key stats are then adjusted using the formula: Adjusted Stat = Raw Stat * (Average OQS of their opponents / Divisional Average OQS).

Edge & Advantage

This analysis reveals the true story behind a fighter's record, giving you an edge over the market which often overvalues undefeated streaks against weak opponents.

Key Indicators

• Strength of Schedule Score

  high

  A composite score from 1-100 rating the overall difficulty of a fighter's past opponents.

• Opponent Average Win %

  high

  The average winning percentage of a fighter's past opponents at the time they fought.

• Ranked Wins

  medium

  Total number of victories against opponents who were officially ranked in the top 15.

Data Sources

• UFCStats.com

  Official, detailed fight statistics and records provided directly by the UFC.

• Tapology

  Crowdsourced fighter records, event data, and valuable historical ranking information.

• Sherdog

  Comprehensive fighter profiles, event histories, and fight records for MMA.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will Fighter A defeat Fighter B in the upcoming UFC event?
• → Is the betting favorite's record inflated by weak competition?
• → Who has a more impressive resume when adjusting for opponent quality, Fighter A or Fighter B?

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