Momentum & Swing Analysis

Overview

This pillar analyzes the rate of change in political polling data to distinguish real momentum from statistical noise. It's crucial for identifying which candidates or parties are gaining or losing ground before it becomes common knowledge.

What It Does

The pillar aggregates polling data over a 14-day window, applying rolling averages to smooth out the volatility of individual polls. It then calculates the velocity of these trendlines to quantify momentum. This process highlights sustained shifts in public opinion, providing a clearer picture than single data points.

Why It Matters

Prediction markets often overreact to daily poll releases. This analysis provides a more stable, signal-focused view, helping you avoid false alarms and spot legitimate trends early. It gives you an edge by focusing on the underlying trajectory of a campaign, not the daily chatter.

How It Works

First, it collects daily polling numbers from multiple reputable sources for a specific election. Next, it computes a 7-day rolling average to establish a baseline trend. It then calculates the rate of change in this average over the last 3 to 5 days to generate a momentum score. Finally, it projects how undecided voters might break based on the momentum of the leading candidates.

Methodology

Calculates the first derivative of a 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of aggregated polling data. The Momentum Score is defined as (Today's 7-day SMA - 7-day SMA from 3 days ago) / 3. A positive score indicates growing support, while a negative score indicates a decline. Undecided voter analysis is based on the relative momentum scores of the top two contenders.

Edge & Advantage

This pillar cuts through the media noise of single poll releases, offering a quantitative and stable signal of true voter sentiment shifts.

Key Indicators

• 7-Day Momentum Score

  high

  The rate of change in a candidate's 7-day rolling polling average, indicating speed and direction of sentiment.

• Undecided Voter Break

  medium

  A projection of how the undecided electorate might vote, based on the momentum of leading candidates.

• Polling Volatility

  low

  Measures the standard deviation of recent polls to gauge the level of statistical noise and uncertainty.

Data Sources

• FiveThirtyEight Polling Aggregator

  Provides aggregated and weighted polling data for major global elections.

• RealClearPolitics Averages

  Offers rolling averages of recent polls for key political races, primarily in the US.

• YouGov International

  Source for public opinion data and polls across numerous countries.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will Candidate A's national polling average be above 45% on election day?
• → Who will win the 2024 UK General Election?
• → Will the ruling party's approval rating increase by the end of the quarter?

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