QB EPA/Play & Success Rate

Overview

This pillar analyzes a quarterback's per-play efficiency using Expected Points Added (EPA) and Success Rate. It provides a deeper, more accurate measure of a QB's contribution to scoring than traditional stats like passing yards.

What It Does

It calculates the change in a team's expected points before and after every play a quarterback is involved in. This isolates the QB's direct impact on scoring potential. The pillar also measures Success Rate, which determines if a play gained enough yardage to be considered successful based on down and distance.

Why It Matters

Traditional stats can be misleading; a QB can rack up yards in garbage time without affecting the outcome. EPA and Success Rate provide a true measure of offensive efficiency, offering a strong predictive signal for a team's ability to score and cover spreads.

How It Works

First, the model ingests play-by-play data for recent games. It then calculates the EPA for each pass or run by the quarterback, adjusting for opponent defensive strength. Finally, it aggregates these per-play values into an overall EPA per play and Success Rate, which are compared against the opposing team's defensive metrics.

Methodology

EPA is calculated as (Expected Points at end of play) minus (Expected Points at start of play). Success Rate is defined as a play gaining at least 50% of yards-to-go on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down. Analysis uses a 5-game rolling average, weighted for recency and opponent defensive efficiency ratings.

Edge & Advantage

This pillar isolates a quarterback's true value, separating their performance from the team's overall situation and providing a leading indicator of offensive potential.

Key Indicators

• EPA per Dropback

  high

  Measures the average change in expected points each time the quarterback drops back to pass.

• Passing Success Rate

  high

  The percentage of pass plays that are considered successful based on down and distance.

• CPOE (Completion % Over Expected)

  medium

  Measures a quarterback's completion percentage relative to the difficulty of their throws.

Data Sources

• CollegeFootballData.com

  Provides free play-by-play data and pre-calculated advanced metrics for college football.

• Pro Football Focus (PFF)

  Offers premium player grades and advanced statistics for both college and professional football.

• Sports Reference

  A comprehensive source for historical sports statistics, including some advanced metrics.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will Ohio State cover the -7.5 point spread against Michigan?
• → Will the total points in the Alabama vs. Georgia game be over 58.5?
• → Will USC's QB throw for over 2.5 touchdowns against Notre Dame?

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