Recent Shooter Form & Sh% Sustainability

Overview

This pillar analyzes a hockey player's recent goal-scoring against their underlying shot quality (ixG) to identify regression candidates. It helps determine if a player's hot streak is luck or skill, providing a crucial edge in player prop markets.

What It Does

The model evaluates a player's performance over the last 10 games, comparing their actual goals scored to their Individual Expected Goals (ixG). It calculates the variance between these two figures and contrasts their current shooting percentage with their career average. This process generates a sustainability score that flags players who are significantly overperforming or underperforming their statistical baseline.

Why It Matters

Public trading markets often overreact to short-term goal totals, creating value on players due for regression. This pillar offers a data-driven reality check, separating players on lucky streaks from those with genuinely improved performance. It allows you to fade overvalued hot shooters and find value in slumping stars before the market corrects.

How It Works

First, the pillar aggregates a player's shot, goal, and ixG data from their last 10 games played. It then calculates the difference between actual goals and expected goals to quantify their finishing luck. Finally, this variance is cross-referenced with their short-term and long-term shooting percentages to determine if their current pace is sustainable.

Methodology

The core calculation is a 'Finishing Variance' score, derived from the formula: (Actual Goals [Last 10 Games] - ixG [Last 10 Games]). This score is then contextualized by comparing the player's Shooting Percentage [L10] against their career average Sh%. A positive variance above 1.5 goals combined with a Sh% more than 5% above their career average signals a high probability of negative regression.

Edge & Advantage

It quantifies luck versus skill in recent performance, enabling you to bet against players on unsustainable hot streaks before the public catches on.

Key Indicators

• Shooting % (L10 Games)

  high

  The player's goal conversion rate on shots on goal over the last 10 games, indicating current finishing form.

• Individual xG vs Actual Goals

  high

  The gap between expected goals based on shot quality and actual goals scored, measuring finishing luck.

• Shot Volume Trends

  medium

  Changes in a player's shots on goal per game, indicating their level of offensive opportunity.

Data Sources

• MoneyPuck

  Provides daily updated player stats, including advanced Expected Goals models and game logs.

• Natural Stat Trick

  A leading source for advanced NHL statistics like individual Expected Goals (ixG), Corsi, and Fenwick.

• NHL.com API

  Official source for basic game-by-game player statistics like shots, goals, and time on ice.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will Auston Matthews score a goal tonight?
• → Will Connor McDavid record over or under 1.5 points in his next game?
• → Who will score more goals this week: David Pastrnak or Nathan MacKinnon?

Tags