Scandal Severity & Legal Jeopardy

Overview

This pillar assesses the political damage from active investigations, corruption charges, or personal scandals. It models the 'stickiness' of a controversy to determine if it will impact core voters and derail a campaign or career.

What It Does

It systematically tracks legal proceedings, from initial investigation to indictment and trial, assigning a severity score at each stage. This legal jeopardy is combined with media sentiment analysis and public polling data. The pillar creates a unified 'Jeopardy Score' to gauge the scandal's overall threat level.

Why It Matters

Not all scandals are created equal; this pillar helps distinguish between minor media flare-ups and genuine, career-ending crises. It provides a crucial edge in markets where a politician's viability, approval, or electoral success is in question.

How It Works

First, the pillar identifies and categorizes any active legal or personal scandal for a given politician. It then scores the legal severity based on the type of charge and stage of the process. Simultaneously, it analyzes media coverage volume and public polling to measure political impact, then combines these factors into a single risk score.

Methodology

The core metric is the Jeopardy Score (0-100), a weighted average of a Legal Severity Score (LSS) and a Public Impact Score (PIS). LSS is determined by the stage of legal proceedings (e.g., investigation=2, indictment=6, trial=9). PIS is derived from NLP sentiment analysis on major news outlets over a 14-day window and changes in approval ratings from polls that mention the scandal. The final score is calculated as (LSS * 0.6) + (PIS * 0.4).

Edge & Advantage

This pillar moves beyond reactionary headline analysis by systematically quantifying legal and political fallout, providing a clearer signal of a scandal's true market impact.

Key Indicators

• Indictment Status

  high

  The current stage of legal proceedings, from investigation to formal charges or trial.

• Media Salience Score

  high

  Measures the volume and negative sentiment of media coverage related to the scandal.

• Public Polling Impact

  medium

  Tracks changes in a politician's approval ratings or voter trust specifically tied to the scandal.

Data Sources

• Official Court Filings & DOJ Releases

  Provides primary source documents on indictments, charges, and case timelines for legal analysis.

• Transparency International

  Source for the Corruption Perception Index and reports on global and national corruption trends.

• Major News APIs

  Aggregated news sources used for tracking media coverage volume and performing sentiment analysis.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will [Politician X] be indicted by [Date]?
• → Will [Candidate Y]'s approval rating drop below 40% before the election?
• → Will a corruption investigation be formally opened into [Government Official] this year?

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