Superforecaster Aggregator

Overview

This pillar synthesizes predictions from the top 1-5% of historically accurate forecasters. It provides a powerful, noise-filtered signal by focusing exclusively on the proven insights of elite predictors.

What It Does

It continuously tracks the performance of thousands of forecasters across various platforms using metrics like the Brier score. By isolating the top percentile, it creates a weighted average prediction, giving more influence to those with a superior long-term track record. This 'Elite Consensus' serves as a high-quality benchmark against the general market.

Why It Matters

The wisdom of the crowd can be noisy and slow to react. This pillar offers a sharper, more reliable signal by leveraging the demonstrated skill of a select few, providing a potential information edge before the broader market adjusts.

How It Works

First, we ingest prediction data and track individual forecaster performance over time. Second, we rank all participants using a time-decayed accuracy score to identify the top tier. Finally, we aggregate the current predictions from only this elite group, weighting each forecast by the individual's historical accuracy score to generate the final signal.

Methodology

Forecasters are ranked using a time-decayed Brier score over a rolling 18-month window. The top 5% are classified as 'elite'. Their current predictions on a given market are aggregated using a weighted average, where the weight is proportional to their inverse Brier score. A lower historical Brier score results in a higher weight for their current prediction.

Edge & Advantage

It provides a clear signal from proven experts, often ahead of the broader market which is diluted by less-informed or casual participants.

Key Indicators

• Elite Consensus

  high

  The weighted average probability from the top 5% of forecasters.

• Consensus Spread

  medium

  The difference between the Elite Consensus and the general market price. A large spread indicates a potential mispricing.

• Elite Conviction

  low

  Measures the degree of agreement among the elite forecasters. High conviction suggests a stronger signal.

Data Sources

• Good Judgment Open

  A public forecasting platform that actively identifies and tracks superforecasters.

• Metaculus

  A prediction platform with a community of dedicated forecasters and long-term track records.

• Internal Performance Tracking

  Proprietary system for tracking forecaster accuracy across multiple prediction markets.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will the US enter a recession in the next 18 months?
• → Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
• → Will Taiwan be admitted to the UN as a member state by 2035?

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