Technical Anomaly & Scrub Risk Modeling

Overview

This pillar analyzes the technical health of a spacecraft or launch vehicle, identifying recurring issues and unresolved anomalies. It acts as an 'injury report' for rockets, providing a data-driven assessment of scrub or delay risk.

What It Does

It systematically tracks public data on technical investigations, sensor malfunctions, and hardware issues across a specific vehicle fleet. The pillar aggregates these data points, weighting recent and recurring anomalies more heavily. This process generates a risk score that models the probability of a technical issue causing a launch delay or scrub.

Why It Matters

Official launch schedules often present a best-case scenario. This pillar provides a crucial reality check by pricing in the hidden risks from unresolved technical problems, offering a more accurate probability of a launch proceeding on time.

How It Works

First, the system collects all documented anomalies for a specific launch vehicle from FAA reports and technical news sources. Each anomaly is scored based on its severity, recurrence, and the status of any corrective actions. These scores are then combined into a time-weighted composite 'Scrub Risk Score', which is benchmarked against the vehicle's historical performance.

Methodology

The model uses a recency-weighted algorithm, applying a 2.5x multiplier to anomalies reported within 60 days of a scheduled launch. It aggregates data from FAA Mishap Investigation Dockets and NASA mission logs. The final output is a percentile-based risk score, where a score of 90 indicates a higher scrub risk than 90% of the vehicle's previous launch attempts.

Edge & Advantage

This pillar provides a predictive edge by identifying overvalued 'on-time' launch markets that ignore the subtle but significant signs of technical trouble.

Key Indicators

• Open Mishap Investigations

  high

  The status of any open FAA or NTSB investigations into previous flights of the same vehicle type.

• Recurring Anomaly Frequency

  high

  Tracks how often a specific issue, like a sensor failure or helium leak, has occurred across the fleet.

• Corrective Action Status

  medium

  Whether documented fixes for known, past issues have been implemented and verified on the current vehicle.

Data Sources

• FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation

  Official data on launch licenses, mishap investigations, and regulatory actions.

• NASA Mission Press Kits

  Detailed pre-launch briefings and technical status updates on vehicle readiness.

• NASASpaceFlight.com

  In-depth journalistic coverage and community analysis of technical spaceflight developments.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will SpaceX's Starship complete a full flight test by December 31?
• → Will the first launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn be delayed past Q3?
• → Will NASA's Artemis II mission launch on its currently scheduled date?

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