Travel Fatigue & Time Zone Shifts

Overview

This pillar analyzes the impact of travel fatigue and time zone shifts on MLB team performance. It identifies predictable slumps in teams playing on short rest after long-distance travel, creating an edge in specific betting markets.

What It Does

The model quantifies fatigue by calculating miles traveled, time zones crossed, and rest periods between games. It specifically flags high-risk scenarios, such as a West Coast team flying overnight to play an early game on the East Coast. This generates a 'Fatigue Score' that predicts a temporary decline in physical and cognitive performance.

Why It Matters

The betting market often undervalues the physiological impact of jet lag. This pillar provides a data-driven way to spot teams that are likely to underperform, especially early in games before their bodies have adjusted.

How It Works

First, the system ingests the official MLB schedule, noting game times and locations. For each game, it analyzes the visiting team's previous game location and end time. It then calculates the travel distance and time zone delta, applying a higher penalty for west-to-east travel without a day of rest. This results in a score that flags vulnerable teams.

Methodology

A 'Fatigue Score' is calculated for visiting teams using the formula: (Miles Traveled / 500) + (Time Zone Delta * 2). The score is multiplied by 1.5 if the team had no off-day and by an additional 1.25 for west-to-east travel. The analysis focuses on games where the rest period is less than 24 hours.

Edge & Advantage

This pillar provides an edge by focusing on a physiological factor that box scores and standard team stats completely ignore, allowing for profitable fades of fatigued favorites.

Key Indicators

• Time Zone Shift

  high

  The number of time zones crossed. A shift of 2 or more is highly significant.

• Rest Period

  high

  Hours between the end of the previous game and the start of the current one. Less than 24 hours indicates high fatigue.

• Direction of Travel

  medium

  West-to-east travel has a more severe impact on circadian rhythms than east-to-west.

• Travel Distance

  medium

  Total miles traveled between game locations, indicating overall travel burden.

Data Sources

• Official MLB Schedule API

  Provides official game times, dates, and ballpark locations for all teams.

• Aviation Data Services

  Used to calculate great-circle distances and estimated flight times between ballpark cities.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will the Los Angeles Dodgers score under 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings against the New York Mets after flying in overnight?
• → Will the Seattle Mariners lose their game against the Boston Red Sox when playing the day after a home game?
• → Will the total runs be under 8.5 in a game featuring a West Coast team traveling to the East Coast with no day off?

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