Backup QB Drop-off Analysis

Overview

Evaluates the statistical 'Fragility Factor' of college football offenses by measuring the quality gap between starting quarterbacks and their replacements. Crucial for pricing injury risk into futures and capitalizing on market overreactions during live games.

What It Does

This pillar calculates a specific 'Point Drop-off Value' for every FBS team. It aggregates recruiting pedigree, limited historical snap data, and offensive system dependency to project how many points per game an offense loses if the starter is sidelined.

Why It Matters

In college football, the gap between a starter and a backup can range from negligible to a 14-point swing. Markets often apply a generic penalty for injuries; this pillar identifies specific variance, revealing edges where the market penalizes a team too much (good backup) or too little (disastrous backup).

How It Works

The engine scans depth charts and transfer portal data to confirm the QB2. It then compares the starter's proven EPA (Expected Points Added) against the backup's projected production, derived from high school recruiting composite scores and 'garbage time' performance regression.

Methodology

Calculates a 'Drop-off Coefficient' using a weighted formula: 40% Backup Recruiting Rating (Talent Floor), 30% System Friendliness (Schematic Floor), and 30% Historical Snaps (Experience Factor). The output is converted into a net points-per-game adjustment applied to the spread.

Edge & Advantage

Provides an instant 'Fair Price' adjustment for live trading markets immediately after an injury occurs, often seconds before exchanges adjust their lines.

Key Indicators

• Recruiting Composite Delta

  high

  Difference in 247Sports composite rating between QB1 and QB2

• Live Snap Experience

  medium

  Total career pass attempts by the backup in non-garbage time

• System Dependency Score

  medium

  How reliant the offense is on QB talent vs. scheme (e.g., Air Raid vs. Pro Style)

Data Sources

• 247Sports Composite

  Historical high school recruit rankings

• CollegeFootballData API

  Roster depth charts and usage stats

• Transfer Portal Tracker

  movements affecting depth chart stability

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → How will the spread shift if the starting QB is ruled out 1 hour before kickoff?
• → Is the Over/Under on Season Wins vulnerable due to lack of QB depth?
• → What is the live line value immediately after the starter leaves the game with an injury?

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