Booster Fleet Allocation & Availability

Overview

This pillar tracks individual booster serial numbers and their flight histories to assess mechanical risk. It evaluates fleet depth to determine if schedule pressure might force faster-than-ideal turnaround times.

What It Does

It creates a profile for every active rocket booster in the fleet by tracking previous missions, landing stress, and refurbishment intervals. The system flags life-leaders with high flight counts and identifies new hardware that has not been flight-proven. It correlates specific hardware assignments with historical scrub rates.

Why It Matters

Prediction markets often overlook the specific hardware being used. A booster flying for the 15th time has a different risk profile than a fresh core. Fleet bottlenecks are a leading cause of launch delays which directly impacts date-based prediction markets.

How It Works

The model scrapes regulatory filings and visual sightings to identify the assigned booster serial number. It compares the current refurbishment window against the fleet average. It adjusts probability weights based on the specific landing method required and the booster's previous thermal loads.

Methodology

Utilizes serial number tracking databases and FCC filing dates. Calculates wear-index based on reentry velocities of previous missions. Tracks turnaround-days (time between landing and next static fire). Analyzes fleet availability ratio by comparing active boosters against scheduled missions within a 60-day window.

Edge & Advantage

Identifying mechanical fatigue risks or fleet bottlenecks before the general public allows for superior positioning on landing success markets and specific launch date binaries.

Key Indicators

• Flight Count

  high

  Total number of missions flown by the specific booster core

• Turnaround Days

  high

  Days elapsed since the booster's last flight compared to fleet average

• Refurbishment Status

  medium

  Current location and maintenance status of the hardware

Data Sources

• FAA/FCC Filings

  Regulatory permits that often identify specific hardware assignments

• Visual Spotting Logs

  Community databases tracking booster transport and testing

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will the Starship flight test occur before the end of the month?
• → Will the Falcon 9 booster landing be successful?
• → Will the upcoming Crew Dragon launch be scrubbed on the first attempt?

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