Candidate Favorability & Momentum Index

Overview

This pillar assesses a candidate's structural strength by synthesizing net favorability ratings with short-term velocity metrics. It treats politicians like athletes to determine if they are entering a peak performance phase or a slump.

What It Does

The system aggregates raw polling data from major aggregators to establish a baseline net approval score. It then overlays a momentum oscillator to detect acceleration or deceleration in public sentiment before it reflects in headline polling numbers. This distinguishes between statistical noise and genuine shifts in voter opinion.

Why It Matters

Prediction markets often lag behind subtle shifts in voter sentiment by reacting only to major headline polls. By identifying momentum changes early, traders can position themselves before the broader market prices in a candidate's surge or decline.

How It Works

First, we ingest daily approval rating updates from high-grade pollsters. Second, we calculate a rolling 14-day average to smooth noise while preserving trend signals. Finally, we correlate these figures with national 'right track' sentiment to context-adjust the candidate's personal performance against the national mood.

Methodology

Uses a weighted moving average (WMA) of net favorability (Approve minus Disapprove) over a 14-day window. Applies a linear regression to the last 7 days to determine the 'Velocity Score'. Data is normalized against the generic congressional ballot to isolate candidate-specific strength from party performance.

Edge & Advantage

Most traders focus on head-to-head matchup polls which are lagging indicators; this pillar identifies the underlying sentiment velocity that often precedes matchup shifts by 3 to 5 days.

Key Indicators

• Net Favorability Delta

  high

  The week-over-week change in net approval ratings

• Velocity Score

  high

  Rate of change in polling numbers over the last 7 days

• Base Support Floor

  medium

  The lowest approval rating sustained over a 90-day period

Data Sources

• FiveThirtyEight

  Aggregated polling data and pollster ratings

• RealClearPolitics

  Historical polling averages and spread data

• YouGov Public Data

  Granular demographic breakdowns of candidate sentiment

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
• → Will Joe Biden's approval rating exceed 42% by year end?
• → Who will be the Republican Vice Presidential nominee?

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