Cliff Unlock Price Impact Model

Overview

Analyzes upcoming token vesting unlocks to forecast potential sell pressure and short-term price impact. This pillar helps traders anticipate volatility and position themselves before major supply changes hit the market.

What It Does

This model quantifies the potential sell-off risk from scheduled token unlocks for early investors and team members. It aggregates data on the size of the unlock relative to circulating supply and average daily trading volume. The model also incorporates historical data from previous unlocks for the same or similar assets to create a predictive impact score.

Why It Matters

Vesting unlocks are predictable, high-impact events that can significantly suppress a token's price by introducing a large new supply. This pillar provides a forward-looking analysis, turning a known future event into a quantifiable and actionable trading signal.

How It Works

First, the pillar identifies major upcoming cliff unlocks from project documentation and on-chain data aggregators. It then calculates the unlock size as a percentage of both the current circulating supply and the 30-day average trading volume. Finally, this 'supply shock' ratio is compared against historical data to project a likely price impact range for the 72 hours following the event.

Methodology

Calculates a 'Supply Pressure Score' using the formula: (Tokens Unlocked / 30-Day Avg. Daily Volume) * Historical Price Beta. The Historical Price Beta is derived by analyzing the average price change in the 72-hour window following the last 3 comparable unlocks for the asset or a basket of similar assets. Analysis focuses on unlocks greater than 0.5% of circulating supply.

Edge & Advantage

It provides a specific, data-driven estimate of sell pressure, moving beyond simple awareness of an unlock to a quantifiable risk assessment before the market reacts.

Key Indicators

• Unlock vs. Volume Ratio

  high

  The unlocked token amount compared to the average daily trading volume, indicating the market's capacity to absorb new supply.

• % Circulating Supply Unlocked

  high

  The size of the unlock as a percentage of the total circulating supply, measuring the potential for market dilution.

• Historical Post-Unlock Performance

  medium

  Price action of the asset or similar assets following previous, comparable unlock events.

Data Sources

• TokenUnlocks

  Provides aggregated data and schedules for token vesting and unlocks across numerous crypto projects.

• Project Documentation

  Official whitepapers and investor documents detailing token allocation and vesting schedules.

• CoinGecko API

  Source for historical price, trading volume, and circulating supply data.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will the price of APT be below $8.50 on September 15th, following its unlock?
• → Will SUI trade lower in the 7 days following its Q4 venture capital unlock?
• → Will the price of DYDX be above or below its 30-day average 72 hours after its next major unlock event?

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