Deep Ball Aggression (Air Yards)

Overview

This pillar analyzes a quarterback's tendency to throw deep downfield by tracking their Average Depth of Target (aDOT) and aggressive throw rate. It provides crucial insights into a QB's style, risk tolerance, and potential for high-yardage games.

What It Does

It calculates a quarterback's aDOT by averaging the air yards on all pass attempts, both complete and incomplete. The pillar also measures the percentage of throws that travel over 20 yards in the air. This data is then contextualized against the QB's historical averages and the defensive scheme they are facing.

Why It Matters

A QB with a high aDOT is more likely to generate explosive plays, leading to higher passing yardage and more touchdowns. This provides a predictive edge in player prop markets, as it isolates a key driver of fantasy points and statistical production that standard box scores miss.

How It Works

First, the model ingests play-by-play data for every NFL game. It then calculates the air yards for each pass attempt and computes the QB's aDOT over a rolling 4-game window. Finally, it compares this recent trend to their season-long baseline and the league average to generate a forward-looking aggression score.

Methodology

Average Depth of Target (aDOT) is calculated as Total Air Yards / Total Pass Attempts. Deep Ball Rate is (Passes Traveling > 20 Air Yards) / Total Pass Attempts. Analysis uses a 4-game rolling average, weighted more heavily towards the most recent game, to capture current form and play-calling tendencies.

Edge & Advantage

This pillar predicts boom-or-bust potential by focusing on intent (how far a QB throws) rather than just results (completions), offering an edge in over/under yardage props.

Key Indicators

• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)

  high

  The average number of yards the ball travels in the air per pass attempt.

• Deep Ball Rate

  medium

  The percentage of a QB's pass attempts that travel 20 or more yards downfield.

• Intended Air Yards (IAY)

  medium

  The total air yards a QB throws on all passes, including incompletions.

Data Sources

• Pro-Football-Reference

  Provides advanced player statistics, including air yards data.

• NFL Next Gen Stats

  Official source for player tracking data, including advanced passing metrics.

• PFF (Pro Football Focus)

  Subscription-based service offering granular play-by-play grading and data.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will Justin Herbert throw for over 285.5 passing yards this week?
• → Will Josh Allen's longest completion be over or under 42.5 yards?
• → Will Tua Tagovailoa have more passing yards than Patrick Mahomes in their head-to-head matchup?

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