Dropout Vote Redistribution (Second Choice)

Overview

This pillar analyzes the 'injury cascade' in multi-candidate elections, primarily political primaries. It models how a candidate's support base redistributes among remaining contenders after they exit a race, providing a crucial edge in volatile markets.

What It Does

By analyzing second-choice polling data and ideological similarity between candidates, this pillar builds a redistribution model. It simulates a candidate's withdrawal to forecast the new vote shares for the remaining field. This moves beyond simple speculation to provide a data-driven estimate of the electoral impact.

Why It Matters

Markets often misprice the impact of a candidate dropping out. This pillar offers a quantitative forecast of the vote shift, allowing users to anticipate market corrections and identify undervalued candidates poised to benefit.

How It Works

First, the pillar identifies candidates with a high probability of dropping out based on polling and fundraising data. It then aggregates second-choice preference polls to see where that candidate's supporters are most likely to shift their allegiance. Finally, it calculates the percentage point gains for each remaining candidate to project a new electoral landscape.

Methodology

The model calculates the projected new vote share `V'_j` for a remaining candidate `j` using the formula: `V'_j = V_j + (S_i * P_ij)`. Here, `V_j` is the current support for candidate `j`, `S_i` is the support of the dropping candidate `i`, and `P_ij` is the proportion of `i`'s supporters who list `j` as their second choice. Data is sourced from reputable polls over a 30-day rolling average; if second-choice data is sparse, an ideological proximity score is used as a proxy for `P_ij`.

Edge & Advantage

It provides a clear, quantitative forecast for vote shifts, enabling faster and more accurate trades than competitors relying on gut feelings or media narratives.

Key Indicators

• Second-Choice Preference

  high

  The percentage of a candidate's supporters who select another specific candidate as their second option.

• Ideological Proximity Score

  medium

  A metric scoring the policy and messaging similarity between two candidates, used as a proxy when direct polling is unavailable.

• Candidate Viability Index

  medium

  A score based on fundraising, poll numbers, and media mentions that indicates the risk of a candidate dropping out.

Data Sources

• Polling Aggregators (e.g., FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics)

  Provides raw polling data, including crosstabs and second-choice questions when available.

• GovTrack / OnTheIssues

  Offers data on candidate voting records and public stances, used to calculate ideological similarity.

• Federal Election Commission (FEC)

  Campaign finance data that helps assess a candidate's financial health and long-term viability.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Who will win the 2028 Republican Presidential Primary?
• → What will be Candidate Y's vote share if Candidate X drops out before the Iowa caucus?
• → Will Candidate Z finish in the top 3 in the New Hampshire primary?

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