Electoral Track Record & Name ID Arc

Overview

This pillar analyzes a candidate's complete electoral history and current name recognition to forecast their performance in upcoming primaries. It provides a foundational view of a candidate's true electoral strength, beyond temporary media hype.

What It Does

It aggregates a candidate's historical election results, comparing their final vote share against pre-election polling to find patterns of over or underperformance. This historical data is then combined with current polling trends on name ID and favorability. The pillar creates a profile of the candidate's proven ability to win votes and their current public perception arc.

Why It Matters

Prediction markets often overreact to short-term polling shifts and media narratives. This pillar provides a crucial long-term baseline, helping to identify structurally strong candidates who may be undervalued or flagging candidates whose support is superficial.

How It Works

First, we compile all of a candidate's previous election results and the corresponding final polling averages for those races. Second, we calculate their historical 'Performance vs Polling' score. Third, we track their current 30-day rolling average for name recognition and net favorability. Finally, these historical and current data points are synthesized to evaluate their potential in a primary contest.

Methodology

The core metric is the Performance vs Polling (PvP) score, calculated as the average percentage point difference between a candidate's actual vote share and their final polling average across all prior general elections. The Name ID Arc is measured by the slope of the 30-day moving average of net favorability ratings. Candidates with a high positive PvP and a steep positive Name ID Arc are considered strong.

Edge & Advantage

This pillar provides an edge by grounding analysis in a candidate's demonstrated electoral track record, not just speculative polling.

Key Indicators

• Performance vs Polling (PvP) Score

  high

  Measures a candidate's historical ability to over or underperform their pre-election polling averages.

• Net Favorability Trend

  high

  The 30-day moving average of a candidate's favorability minus unfavorability ratings.

• Re-election Margin Growth

  medium

  The percentage change in margin of victory across successive re-election campaigns for the same office.

Data Sources

• Ballotpedia

  Provides comprehensive historical election results, candidate biographies, and past race details.

• FiveThirtyEight Polling Aggregator

  Collects and averages polling data on name recognition and favorability from various pollsters.

• Federal Election Commission (FEC)

  Official election results and historical data for federal offices.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential primary?
• → Will Candidate X receive over 40% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary?
• → Which candidate will win the Democratic primary for the California Senate seat?

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