Weather core tier
intermediate
Reliability 75/100
Ensemble Spread Uncertainty
GEFS 31-member confidence measure
Overview
Analyzes GEFS 31-member spread to quantify genuine forecast uncertainty.
What It Does
Evaluates GEFS ensemble spread width. Tight spread = high confidence. Wide spread = uncertainty the market may not be pricing.
Why It Matters
A single forecast gives you a number. The ensemble spread tells you how much to trust it. Markets consistently underprice wide ensemble uncertainty.
How It Works
Checks GEFS ensemble member outputs, calculates spread percentiles, compares to contract pricing.
Key Indicators
Data Sources
Use Ensemble Spread Uncertainty on a real market
Run this analytical framework on any Polymarket or Kalshi event contract.
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