Euroscepticism vs. Integration Index

Overview

This pillar measures the political tension between national sovereignty and European integration. It provides a crucial signal for when the EU issue will disrupt traditional voting patterns and influence election outcomes.

What It Does

The index synthesizes data from three key areas: public opinion, media focus, and party politics. It aggregates polling on EU trust, analyzes media coverage for terms related to sovereignty and immigration, and scores political party platforms on their pro or anti-EU stances. This creates a single, time-series score representing the salience of the EU debate within a specific country.

Why It Matters

Standard election models often focus on economic performance and left-right ideology. This index captures a powerful cross-cutting issue that can override those factors, providing an edge in predicting the rise of populist parties and unexpected referendum results.

How It Works

First, we collect and average national and EU-wide polls on trust in European institutions. Second, we perform media content analysis to track the frequency of keywords like 'borders', 'sovereignty', and 'Brussels'. Finally, we analyze party manifestos to assign a Euroscepticism score, which is then weighted by the party's current polling numbers to create the final index.

Methodology

The index is a weighted composite score calculated on a 90-day rolling basis. The formula is: Index = (0.5 * Normalized EU Trust Polls) + (0.3 * Media Salience Score) + (0.2 * Polling-Weighted Party Stance Score). Media salience is derived from keyword frequency in top 5 national news outlets. Party stances are rated on a -10 (Hard Eurosceptic) to +10 (Pro-Integration) scale.

Edge & Advantage

This pillar identifies when the EU cleavage is strong enough to cause voters to abandon traditional party loyalties, flagging potential for upsets missed by conventional polling analysis.

Key Indicators

• EU Trust Polling Average

  high

  The aggregated public approval or disapproval of EU institutions from major polls.

• Media Salience Score

  medium

  Measures how frequently sovereignty and immigration are mentioned in mainstream national media.

• Party Platform Polarity

  medium

  The weighted average of pro vs. anti EU sentiment across all major political parties.

Data Sources

• Eurobarometer

  Provides standardized, long-term public opinion polling across all EU member states.

• GDELT Project

  Monitors global news media, used here to track keyword salience related to the EU debate.

• Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES)

  Provides data on political party positioning on European integration and other key issues.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will a Eurosceptic party win the most seats in the upcoming French presidential election?
• → Will Poland's ruling party win a majority in the next Sejm election?
• → Will Italy hold a referendum on EU membership before 2030?

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