First 15 (Scripted Plays) Success

Overview

Analyzes a team's offensive efficiency on their first 15 pre-scripted plays. This pillar provides insight into coaching preparation and early game momentum, which is crucial for first-half and live trading markets.

What It Does

This pillar isolates the first 15 offensive plays for each team in recent games to evaluate their initial game plan. It measures key performance indicators like yards per play, scoring rate on opening drives, and overall play success. The analysis then generates a 'Scripted Success Score' to rank how effectively a team starts a game.

Why It Matters

A team's performance on its scripted plays is a strong indicator of its coaching quality and preparation. Excelling in this phase often leads to an early lead, fundamentally shifting in-game win probabilities and setting the tone for the entire contest.

How It Works

The model ingests play-by-play data from a team's previous 5-8 games. It identifies the first 15 offensive plays and calculates an efficiency score based on yards gained, first downs, and scoring success. This score is then compared against their opponent's defensive performance in the same game phase to find mismatches.

Methodology

The core metric is the Scripted Play Efficiency (SPE) score, calculated as a weighted average of: 1. Yards Per Play on the first 15 plays. 2. Offensive Success Rate, defined as gaining 40% of required yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and 100% on 3rd/4th downs. 3. Opening Drive Score Percentage. Analysis uses a 5-game rolling window with a 1.2x weight for the most recent game.

Edge & Advantage

This pillar quantifies a team's strategic preparation, a factor that broad season-long stats miss. This provides a specific edge for predicting first-quarter and first-half results before in-game adjustments dilute the initial game plan's impact.

Key Indicators

• Scripted Efficiency Score

  high

  A composite score measuring yards, first downs, and scoring on the first 15 plays.

• Opening Drive Score %

  high

  The percentage of a team's opening offensive drives that result in a touchdown or field goal.

• Yards Per Play (First 15)

  medium

  The average offensive yards gained per play during the scripted portion of the game.

Data Sources

• NFL Next Gen Stats

  Provides advanced metrics and official play-by-play data for analysis.

• Pro-Football-Reference

  Offers historical game logs, drive summaries, and detailed play breakdowns.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will the Kansas City Chiefs score on their opening drive against the Denver Broncos?
• → Will the Philadelphia Eagles be leading the Dallas Cowboys at halftime?
• → Which team will score first in the upcoming Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears game?

Tags