Weather core tier intermediate Reliability 75/100

Forecast Model Consensus

GFS vs ECMWF agreement scoring

Overview

Compares major global weather model outputs to quantify consensus or divergence on specific weather outcomes.

What It Does

Pulls current GFS and ECMWF deterministic forecasts for the contract location and resolution threshold. Scores agreement on a 0-100 scale.

Why It Matters

Markets frequently anchor to a single model output. When GFS and ECMWF disagree significantly but the market prices as if consensus exists, that divergence is tradeable.

How It Works

Fetches latest model run data, compares deterministic outputs against the contract threshold, flags divergence magnitude.

Key Indicators

Data Sources

Use Forecast Model Consensus on a real market

Run this analytical framework on any Polymarket or Kalshi event contract.

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