Weather core tier
intermediate
Reliability 75/100
Forecast Skill Decay Adjuster
Time-horizon probability calibration
Overview
Adjusts probability estimates based on forecast lead time and documented accuracy decay.
What It Does
Calculates confidence discount based on forecast lead time. 24-48h = accurate to 1-2F. 7-day = more uncertainty. 14-day = directional only.
Why It Matters
Markets consistently misprice near-term vs long-term forecast uncertainty. A 7-day contract priced with 24-hour confidence is systematic mispricing.
How It Works
Maps forecast lead time to historical skill scores, applies uncertainty multiplier.
Key Indicators
Data Sources
Use Forecast Skill Decay Adjuster on a real market
Run this analytical framework on any Polymarket or Kalshi event contract.
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