Fundraising Velocity & Small-Dollar Momentum

Overview

This pillar analyzes the velocity and source of political fundraising to measure a campaign's underlying momentum. It provides a quantitative signal of voter enthusiasm and financial viability that often precedes polling shifts.

What It Does

It tracks the rate of capital intake from platforms like ActBlue and WinRed, focusing on small-dollar contributions. The pillar calculates key metrics such as daily donation volume, average donation size, and cash burn rate. It specifically identifies and quantifies fundraising spikes that occur after significant events like debates or viral moments.

Why It Matters

A surge in small-dollar donations is a powerful, real-time indicator of genuine grassroots excitement and a campaign's long-term health. This data provides a clear financial edge, revealing which candidates are gaining traction and which are struggling before it becomes common knowledge.

How It Works

The system ingests public data from the FEC and fundraising platforms. It then calculates a 7-day moving average for donation volume and a 30-day trend for average donation size to establish a baseline. Finally, it compares current activity against this baseline to score momentum and flags significant deviations as predictive signals.

Methodology

The core metric is the 'Momentum Score', calculated as (7-day moving average of daily donations / 30-day moving average) - 1. Post-event spikes are measured as the percentage increase in donation volume in the 48 hours following an event compared to the prior 7-day average. Average donation size below $50 is classified as 'small-dollar'.

Edge & Advantage

This offers a hard, quantitative signal of voter enthusiasm that is faster and often more reliable than subjective polling or media sentiment.

Key Indicators

• Daily Donation Volume

  high

  The total amount of money raised per day, indicating operational capacity.

• Average Donation Size Trend

  high

  Tracks whether a campaign is relying on small-dollar donors or large bundlers.

• Cash-on-Hand Burn Rate

  medium

  The rate at which a campaign spends its available funds, indicating financial health.

• Post-Event Fundraising Spikes

  high

  A direct measure of a candidate's performance in high-visibility events.

Data Sources

• Federal Election Commission (FEC)

  Provides official quarterly and monthly campaign finance reports, including cash on hand and donor data.

• ActBlue / WinRed

  Fundraising platforms for Democratic and Republican candidates, often providing public tickers and aggregate data.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will Candidate A raise over $50M in Q3?
• → Who will have more individual donors by the primary date: Candidate B or Candidate C?
• → Will Candidate D's campaign suspend before the Iowa caucus due to low funds?

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