Historical Consistency: The 'Flat Track Bully' Index

Overview

This pillar analyzes a player's performance consistency by comparing their goal output against top-tier versus bottom-tier teams. It helps identify 'Flat Track Bullies' who may be overvalued in difficult matchups.

What It Does

The analysis calculates a player's goals per 90 minutes (G/90) separately for matches against teams in the top six and bottom six of the league table. It then computes the 'Flat Track Bully Index' (FTBI), a ratio of their scoring rate against weak teams to their rate against strong teams. A high index score signifies a heavy reliance on scoring against lesser opposition.

Why It Matters

General season statistics can be misleading. This pillar provides crucial context about opponent quality, offering a more accurate prediction of a player's likely performance in a specific upcoming match. It helps avoid traps and find value in player-based prediction markets.

How It Works

First, we categorize all opponents from a player's last 38 league matches as 'top-tier' (top 6) or 'bottom-tier' (bottom 6) based on the league standings at the time of the match. We then calculate the player's total goals and minutes played against each category. Finally, we compute the G/90 for both segments and divide the bottom-tier G/90 by the top-tier G/90 to get the FTBI score.

Methodology

The core formula is FTBI = (Goals_vs_Bottom_Tier / Minutes_vs_Bottom_Tier * 90) / (Goals_vs_Top_Tier / Minutes_vs_Top_Tier * 90). The analysis uses a rolling window of the last 38 league appearances. Team tiers are defined as the top 6 and bottom 6 of the official league table at the time of each fixture.

Edge & Advantage

Markets often price player props based on overall form, but this pillar segments performance by opponent strength, revealing players who are likely to underperform against tough competition.

Key Indicators

• G/90 vs. Top Tier

  high

  A player's goals per 90 minutes against teams in the top 6 of the league.

• G/90 vs. Bottom Tier

  high

  A player's goals per 90 minutes against teams in the bottom 6 of the league.

• Flat Track Bully Index (FTBI)

  high

  The ratio of G/90 vs. Bottom Tier to G/90 vs. Top Tier. A score above 2.0 indicates a significant performance drop-off against better teams.

Data Sources

• Stats Perform (Opta)

  Provides granular, event-level player data for goals, minutes played, and match details.

• FBref.com

  Offers comprehensive historical soccer statistics and league tables, powered by StatsBomb data.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will Son Heung-min score against Manchester City?
• → Will Ollie Watkins score 2 or more goals against Luton Town?
• → Will a specific striker score more goals against bottom-half teams than top-half teams this season?

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