Hurricane Track Convergence

Overview

Tracks how quickly NHC track models are converging for tropical storm and hurricane contracts.

What It Does

Monitors NHC advisory updates, track model ensemble spread, cone evolution. Identifies the 4-12 hour edge window where model convergence outpaces market repricing.

Why It Matters

Hurricane contract prices consistently lag model convergence by 4-12 hours. That lag is the edge window.

How It Works

Tracks NHC advisory cadence, model spaghetti spread, cone narrowing rate vs contract price movement.

Key Indicators

Data Sources