Information Cascade Detector

Overview

This pillar identifies information cascades where news outlets report on each other, creating a feedback loop. It helps you spot narratives that are detached from reality, offering a chance to fade irrational market sentiment.

What It Does

The detector scans a high volume of news articles and social media posts to trace the origin of information. It distinguishes between reports based on primary sources, like official documents or direct quotes, and those that merely cite other media outlets. By quantifying this circular reporting, it gauges the intensity of a media echo chamber.

Why It Matters

Information cascades can dramatically distort public perception and market prices, creating bubbles based on hype rather than facts. This pillar provides a clear signal when a narrative's momentum is artificial, allowing you to position against overreactions and find value where others see only noise.

How It Works

First, the system ingests thousands of articles and posts related to a market topic from various news and social APIs. Next, it uses natural language processing to identify all cited sources within the content. It then calculates the ratio of primary sources to secondary media citations, tracking how quickly key phrases are repeated to measure the cascade's velocity and strength.

Methodology

The core metric is the Cascade Score, calculated using a rolling 24-hour window. The score is a function of the Citation Circularity (CC) and Repetition Velocity (RV), where CC = (Secondary Citations / Total Citations) and RV measures the hourly growth in mentions of a key phrase. A score above a certain threshold indicates a strong cascade is in effect.

Edge & Advantage

It offers a quantitative measure of media hype, providing an early warning that a narrative is detaching from fundamental information and is ripe for a correction.

Key Indicators

• Citation Circularity Score

  high

  Measures how frequently media outlets cite each other instead of original, primary sources on a given topic.

• Primary Source Ratio

  high

  The percentage of all citations that trace back to a verifiable primary source, like a press release, scientific paper, or official statement.

• Repetition Velocity

  medium

  The acceleration in the rate at which specific phrases or claims are repeated across different media platforms.

Data Sources

• GDELT Project

  A massive, open database monitoring global news media, providing data for source and sentiment analysis.

• NewsAPI.org

  Provides real-time access to articles and breaking news headlines from thousands of sources worldwide.

• Social Media APIs

  Real-time data streams from platforms like X (Twitter) to track the propagation of narratives among users.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Is the current surge in this crypto asset driven by fundamental news or a coordinated media campaign?
• → Will this political candidate's polling numbers drop after a wave of negative, self-referential news stories?
• → Will the media backlash against this tech company affect its stock price this week?

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