PDO (Luck/Regression Index)

Overview

The PDO index analyzes a hockey team's 'puck luck' by combining its shooting and save percentages. It is a powerful tool for identifying teams that are overperforming or underperforming their true talent level, creating valuable prediction opportunities.

What It Does

This pillar calculates a team's PDO by summing its on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage during 5v5 play. The league average always regresses towards 100, so teams with a PDO significantly above 100 are considered 'lucky' and are due for a downturn. Conversely, teams well below 100 are 'unlucky' and likely to improve.

Why It Matters

PDO provides a predictive edge by looking beyond a team's simple win-loss record to gauge sustainability. It helps you identify overvalued teams propped up by good fortune and undervalued teams suffering from a string of bad luck, allowing you to position against or on them before the market corrects.

How It Works

First, we gather a team's 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage over a significant sample size, like the last 25 games. Next, we find the team's 5v5 on-ice save percentage for the same period. These two figures are added together to get the PDO score. This score is then compared against the 100.0 baseline to assess if the team's performance is sustainable.

Methodology

The core formula is PDO = (5v5 On-Ice Shooting Percentage * 100) + (5v5 On-Ice Save Percentage * 100). The calculation is restricted to 5v5 even-strength situations to remove the high variance of special teams play. Analysis typically uses a rolling 20 to 25 game window to ensure a statistically relevant sample size while remaining responsive to current team dynamics.

Edge & Advantage

This pillar offers a clear contrarian signal, empowering you to fade teams on unsustainable hot streaks or back teams in a slump before their luck inevitably turns.

Key Indicators

• PDO Score

  high

  The combined sum of Sh% and Sv%. A score far from 100 indicates likely regression.

• On-Ice Shooting % (Sh%)

  medium

  The percentage of shots that result in goals while a team is on the ice. High values suggest offensive luck.

• On-Ice Save % (Sv%)

  medium

  The percentage of shots saved while a team is on the ice. High values suggest strong goaltending luck.

Data Sources

• Natural Stat Trick

  Provides comprehensive, free team and player-level advanced hockey statistics, including PDO.

• Evolving-Hockey

  Offers advanced models and sortable data tables for in-depth NHL statistical analysis.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will Team X win their next game against Team Y?
• → Will the Calgary Flames make the playoffs this season?
• → Will the Philadelphia Flyers have a winning record over their next 10 games?

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