Player Performance Rating (Recent Form)

Overview

This pillar analyzes an esports player's recent performance to generate a 'form' rating. It's valuable for predicting outcomes in markets where individual momentum is a key factor, such as player props and match winner positions.

What It Does

The model aggregates key in-game statistics like KDA, Average Damage per Round (ADR), and Creep Score Per Minute (CSPM) from a player's last 10 competitive maps. It then normalizes these stats against role-based averages to create a single, weighted composite score. This score represents the player's current performance level relative to their peers and their own historical average.

Why It Matters

Long-term career stats don't always reflect a player's immediate condition. This pillar provides a crucial, up-to-date signal on who is currently overperforming or in a slump, offering an edge before the market fully adjusts. This is especially predictive for volatile, momentum-driven esports matchups.

How It Works

First, the system collects detailed, per-map data for a player's 10 most recent official matches. Next, it calculates key metrics and converts them to z-scores to measure deviation from the mean. These scores are then combined using a weighted formula to produce a final 'Recent Form' rating, which is updated after every match.

Methodology

The core calculation is a weighted average of normalized performance indicators over the last 10 official maps. The formula is: Form Score = (0.4 * z(KDA)) + (0.35 * z(ADR)) + (0.25 * z(Impact Rating)). Each metric's z-score is calculated relative to the average performance of all players in the same role during the same tournament or season, ensuring contextually relevant comparisons.

Edge & Advantage

This pillar provides a quantifiable measure of a player's momentum, allowing you to spot players on a hot streak or in a slump before their odds fully reflect their current form.

Key Indicators

• Rating 2.0 / ACS

  high

  A comprehensive performance metric for CS:GO (Rating 2.0) or Valorant (Average Combat Score) that combines multiple stats.

• Average Damage per Round (ADR)

  high

  Measures a player's consistent damage output, indicating their offensive pressure and impact.

• Kill Participation %

  medium

  The percentage of a team's total kills that the player was involved in, showing their contribution to team fights.

Data Sources

• HLTV.org

  The leading source for professional Counter-Strike match histories, player statistics, and event data.

• VLR.gg

  A primary statistics and news website for the professional Valorant scene, providing detailed match data.

• Liquipedia

  A community-driven wiki covering numerous esports titles with detailed match histories and player profiles.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will 'Player s1mple' achieve an HLTV rating over 1.25 in his next match?
• → Will 'Team Liquid' win their upcoming match against 'Team Faze'?
• → Will 'Player TenZ' have more kills than 'Player Asuna' in the grand final?

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