Playmaker (Fly-half) Dependency

Overview

This pillar measures how a rugby team's performance, specifically win probability and point scoring, changes when their starting fly-half is absent. It helps identify teams that are overly dependent on one player, creating valuable trading opportunities.

What It Does

The analysis compares a team's historical performance with and without their primary No. 10 in the lineup. It calculates the variance in key metrics like win percentage, points for, and points against. The model also factors in the experience and quality of the backup fly-half to project the expected drop-off in performance.

Why It Matters

The fly-half is often the most influential player on the pitch, directing the team's attack and kicking goals. Understanding the performance gap between the starter and their backup provides a significant predictive edge, especially in markets sensitive to late lineup changes or injuries.

How It Works

First, we gather historical match data for a team, tagging games where the starting fly-half played versus when they were absent. Next, we calculate the average win rate and points scored in both scenarios to establish a performance baseline. Finally, we adjust this baseline using a quality score for the backup player to produce a dependency rating.

Methodology

The core metric is the Player Dependency Score (PDS), calculated as: PDS = (Win%_with_starter - Win%_without_starter) * (1 - Backup_Quality_Score). The Backup Quality Score is a 0 to 1 scale based on the backup's recent form, international caps, and historical performance. The analysis window typically covers the last 24 months of competitive matches.

Edge & Advantage

This pillar provides a quantifiable edge by isolating a single, high-impact variable that the general market often misprices until just before kickoff.

Key Indicators

• Win % Variance

  high

  The difference in the team's win percentage with the starting fly-half versus without.

• Points Scored Variance

  high

  The change in average points scored per game when the primary playmaker is absent.

• Backup Experience Level

  medium

  A composite score of the backup fly-half's professional appearances, international caps, and recent form.

Data Sources

• Official League Websites

  Provides official team sheets, lineups, and injury reports.

• ESPN Scrum

  Historical match data, player statistics, and performance metrics.

• Stats Perform

  Advanced player and team analytics for professional sports.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will France beat England in the Six Nations if Romain Ntamack is ruled out?
• → Will the Crusaders score over 28.5 points against the Blues without Richie Mo'unga?
• → What is the probability Leinster wins the Champions Cup if Johnny Sexton is injured?

Tags