QB Efficiency (EPA/CPOE)

Overview

This pillar analyzes quarterback performance using Expected Points Added (EPA) and Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE). It moves beyond traditional box scores to provide a more accurate measure of a QB's efficiency and impact on the game.

What It Does

The pillar evaluates every single quarterback play to determine its value. It calculates the change in expected points (EPA) based on situational factors like down, distance, and field position. It also measures a QB's completion percentage against the statistical expectation for each pass (CPOE), providing a true gauge of accuracy.

Why It Matters

Traditional stats like passing yards can be misleading, often rewarding volume over efficiency. This analysis isolates a quarterback's individual contribution to scoring, offering a powerful predictive signal for game outcomes and player performance markets that the general public often overlooks.

How It Works

We process official play-by-play data for every NFL game. For each pass, we calculate the EPA by subtracting the expected points before the snap from the expected points after the play. We then calculate CPOE using a model that predicts completion probability. These two metrics are weighted and combined into a single efficiency score.

Methodology

The core metric is a composite score calculated as (EPA per Play * 0.6) + (CPOE * 0.4). EPA is derived from a model assigning point values to every game state. CPOE is calculated from a logistic regression model factoring in air yards, receiver separation, and pressure. Analysis uses a 6-game rolling window to emphasize current form.

Edge & Advantage

It quantifies QB performance in a context-neutral way, helping you identify undervalued QBs and favorable matchups that simple statistics completely miss.

Key Indicators

• EPA per Play

  high

  Measures the quarterback's contribution to the score on a per-play basis.

• CPOE

  high

  Measures passing accuracy relative to the difficulty of the throws made.

• Success Rate

  medium

  The percentage of a quarterback's plays that result in a positive EPA.

Data Sources

• nfl-data-py (nflfastR)

  Provides clean, accessible play-by-play data for the NFL, which is the foundation for EPA and CPOE calculations.

• Pro-Football-Reference

  Offers advanced player statistics and game logs for historical analysis and cross-referencing.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will the Kansas City Chiefs cover the -6.5 point spread this week?
• → Will Josh Allen throw for over 2.5 touchdowns in his next game?
• → Which quarterback will have a higher passer rating in the Sunday night game?

Tags