Quality of Opposition (Resume Audit)

Overview

This pillar analyzes a fighter's win-loss record by evaluating the quality of their opponents. It helps distinguish between fighters with padded records and those who are truly battle-tested against elite competition.

What It Does

It calculates a 'Resume Score' by systematically auditing a fighter's history. The pillar aggregates the rankings, records, and ELO ratings of past opponents at the time of their fights. This data is then used to create a weighted score that adjusts the fighter's perceived strength.

Why It Matters

A simple win-loss record can be misleading. This analysis provides a more accurate measure of a fighter's experience and skill level, revealing hidden strengths or weaknesses that the market might overlook.

How It Works

First, we compile a fighter's complete professional fight history. For each past opponent, we retrieve their official ranking and ELO rating at the time of the bout. These values are used to calculate an average opponent quality score, with extra weight given to wins against top-tier fighters. This score provides a clear, data-driven context for their record.

Methodology

The core metric is a weighted 'Strength of Schedule' score calculated over the last 12 fights. Each opponent is assigned a point value based on their divisional ranking (e.g., Top 10 = 10 pts, Top 25 = 5 pts). Wins against ranked opponents receive a 1.5x multiplier. The final score is the average point value of all opponents faced in that window.

Edge & Advantage

This pillar exposes fighters with inflated records built on weak opposition, allowing you to identify overvalued favorites and find value in underdogs who have faced tougher competition.

Key Indicators

• Average Opponent Rank

  high

  The average official divisional ranking of a fighter's last 10 opponents.

• Wins vs. Top 15

  high

  Total number of victories against opponents ranked in the top 15 at the time of the fight.

• Record Against Stances

  medium

  A fighter's win/loss record against orthodox vs. southpaw opponents.

Data Sources

• BoxRec

  Provides comprehensive professional boxing records, rankings, and fight histories.

• Tapology

  Offers detailed records and rankings for Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) events and fighters.

• ESPN Boxing/MMA

  Journalistic rankings and analysis of top fighters in each weight class.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will the undefeated challenger beat the reigning champion?
• → Will Fighter A win by decision against Fighter B?
• → Will the underdog pull off an upset in the main event?

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