RB Workload & Wear

Overview

This pillar analyzes a running back's recent workload, including carries, targets, and snap counts, to predict performance regression. It helps identify players who are overextended and likely to underperform their betting lines.

What It Does

It aggregates game-by-game usage data over a rolling three-week window to calculate a 'Wear Score'. This score measures the cumulative physical toll on a player by weighting recent touches and time on the field. The pillar then compares this score to the player's seasonal average and positional baselines to flag potential fatigue.

Why It Matters

Markets often overreact to a player's recent big games, creating inflated prop lines. This pillar provides a contrarian signal by highlighting that extreme usage is often a precursor to a down game or even an injury, offering a clear edge in betting 'unders'.

How It Works

First, the system collects player data for carries, receptions, and offensive snaps for the last three games. It then calculates a weighted Workload Index based on this recent activity. This index is normalized against the player's own season-long baseline to generate a final Fatigue Score, which flags players in the high-risk zone.

Methodology

The core metric is the Workload Index, calculated as: (Rolling 3-Game Carries * 1.0) + (Rolling 3-Game Receptions * 0.8) + (Rolling 3-Game Offensive Snap % * 50). This index is then compared to the player's seasonal average index. A player with a score 25% or higher than their baseline is flagged as high-risk.

Edge & Advantage

It provides a data-driven reason to position against popular players, capitalizing on market inefficiency before a fatigue-induced poor performance occurs.

Key Indicators

• Rolling 3-Game Touches

  high

  Total carries and receptions over the last three games, indicating immediate volume.

• Offensive Snap Percentage

  high

  The percentage of offensive plays the player was on the field, measuring overall wear.

• Yards After Contact per Attempt

  medium

  Measures a player's explosiveness; a declining trend can signal fatigue.

Data Sources

• Pro Football Focus (PFF)

  Provides advanced data including snap counts, yards after contact, and player grades.

• Sports-Reference

  Source for historical and game-by-game box score statistics for college and pro football.

• Team Depth Charts

  Provides context on backup player quality, which influences the starter's workload.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will Ollie Gordon II rush for Over/Under 120.5 yards against Oklahoma State?
• → Will Audric Estime score a touchdown in Notre Dame's next game?
• → Which running back will have more total yards: Blake Corum or TreVeyon Henderson?

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