Recovery Time Estimator

Overview

This pillar quantifies the path to recovery after a loss. It calculates the time and effort required to return to your portfolio's peak, turning emotional setbacks into a data-driven plan.

What It Does

The Recovery Time Estimator uses your current drawdown percentage and historical performance edge to model a recovery scenario. It calculates the exact percentage gain needed to break even, which is always greater than the loss percentage. It then projects the number of future positions required to achieve this gain, providing a clear, actionable target.

Why It Matters

Understanding the non-linear nature of loss recovery is crucial for disciplined trading. This pillar prevents emotional 'revenge trading' by grounding you in the statistical reality of the climb back, promoting better bankroll management and psychological resilience.

How It Works

First, you input your current portfolio drawdown as a percentage. Next, you provide your average edge per bet and your typical betting frequency, like bets per week. The tool then calculates the required gain and divides it by your average edge to estimate the number of bets needed. Finally, it uses your frequency to project the total time for recovery.

Methodology

The core calculation is: Required Gain % = (1 / (1 - Drawdown %)) - 1. For example, a 20% loss requires a 25% gain to recover. The number of bets is estimated as: Bets to Recover = Required Gain % / Average Edge Per Bet %. The time estimate is: Time = Bets to Recover / Bets per Time Period.

Edge & Advantage

This tool provides a crucial psychological edge by replacing panic with a concrete plan, helping you avoid compounding losses with impatient, oversized positions.

Key Indicators

• Current Drawdown %

  high

  The percentage your portfolio has decreased from its most recent peak value.

• Required Gain %

  high

  The percentage gain needed on the remaining capital to return to the previous peak.

• Expected Bets to Recover

  medium

  The estimated number of wagers required to reach the recovery goal based on historical edge.

Data Sources

• User Trading History

  Provides the necessary inputs like current drawdown, average bet size, and historical win rate or edge.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → After losing 15% of my portfolio, how many winning bets will it take to break even?
• → Is it realistic to recover from my current 30% drawdown by the end of the month?
• → How does my required gain change if my drawdown deepens from 20% to 40%?

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