Weather core tier intermediate Reliability 75/100

Storm Intensity Rapid Change

Rapid intensification probability

Overview

Evaluates rapid intensification or weakening probability for tropical systems.

What It Does

Analyzes environmental conditions favoring RI: SSTs, wind shear, moisture, upper-level divergence. RI events create the biggest contract price dislocations.

Why It Matters

Rapid intensification is the single biggest source of hurricane contract mispricing. A Cat 1 that RIs to Cat 4 moves contracts 30-50%.

How It Works

Checks SST anomalies, wind shear, SHIPS RI probability, environmental favorability indices.

Key Indicators

Data Sources

Use Storm Intensity Rapid Change on a real market

Run this analytical framework on any Polymarket or Kalshi event contract.

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