Top-of-Ticket Coattail Dependency

Overview

This pillar analyzes how much a down-ballot candidate's success depends on the popularity of the top-of-ticket nominee, like a presidential or gubernatorial candidate. It's valuable for identifying candidates who are either buoyed by a popular leader or dragged down by an unpopular one.

What It Does

It quantifies the 'coattail effect' by correlating polling data between the top and bottom of the ticket within a specific district. The model also incorporates historical split-ticket voting rates for the area and tracks joint campaign activities. This synthesis produces a dependency score, revealing how much a candidate's fate is tied to national or statewide political winds.

Why It Matters

This analysis provides an edge by flagging candidates whose polling numbers are fragile and dependent on factors outside their own control. It helps predict potential upsets in districts where voters are prone to splitting their ticket, an insight often missed by standard race-specific polls.

How It Works

First, the pillar calculates the statistical correlation between the top-of-ticket candidate's district-level polling and the down-ballot candidate's numbers. Second, it analyzes the district's voting history to determine its propensity for split-ticket voting. Finally, it layers in data on joint campaign appearances and fundraising to assess strategic alignment, creating a final coattail dependency score.

Methodology

The dependency score is a weighted calculation. It is 50% derived from the Pearson correlation coefficient between top-of-ticket and down-ballot polling over the preceding 90 days. 30% comes from the district's average split-ticket voting percentage in the last two major election cycles. The final 20% is a qualitative score based on the frequency of joint campaign events and shared media expenditures.

Edge & Advantage

It identifies systemic risk and opportunity by modeling how a national figure's performance directly impacts local races, revealing fragile leads and hidden strengths.

Key Indicators

• Top-of-Ticket Correlation

  high

  The statistical relationship between the top-of-ticket's polling and the down-ballot candidate's polling.

• Split-Ticket Voting Index

  high

  Historical percentage of voters in a district who vote for candidates from different parties for different offices.

• Joint Campaign Activity

  medium

  Frequency of joint appearances, shared fundraising events, and coordinated advertising efforts.

Data Sources

• FiveThirtyEight Polling Aggregates

  Provides district-level and state-level polling data for presidential, gubernatorial, and congressional races.

• Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index (PVI)

  Offers historical election results and analysis of district-level voting patterns and partisanship.

• Federal Election Commission (FEC)

  Public records on joint fundraising committees and coordinated campaign expenditures.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will the Republican candidate win the House seat in Arizona's 1st congressional district?
• → What will be the margin of victory in the Pennsylvania Senate race?
• → Will Democrats lose their majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 election?

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