Weather core tier
intermediate
Reliability 75/100
Historical Base Rate Anchor
NOAA climate station frequency analysis
Overview
Pulls historical frequency data from NOAA climate records for the exact station and threshold.
What It Does
Queries NOAA Climate Data Online for the resolution station. Calculates historical threshold frequency. Compares to market-implied probability.
Why It Matters
Retail traders anchor to recent weather. Historical base rates correct recency bias systematically.
How It Works
Fetches station-level historical data, calculates threshold exceedance frequency, adjusts for trend.
Key Indicators
Data Sources
Use Historical Base Rate Anchor on a real market
Run this analytical framework on any Polymarket or Kalshi event contract.
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