Workload Density Tracker

Overview

Analyzes a fighter's recent competition frequency to gauge potential burnout, ring rust, or peak sharpness. This pillar provides a crucial, data-driven look at a fighter's physical and mental state leading into a bout.

What It Does

This pillar calculates a 'Workload Density Score' by tracking the number of fights a competitor has had within the last 12 months. It measures the average time between these fights and compares it against their career baseline and divisional averages. The analysis identifies fighters who are unusually active or inactive, which are strong indicators of their potential performance.

Why It Matters

Fighter activity levels are often overlooked but directly impact performance. High density can signal fatigue and accumulated damage, while low density can indicate ring rust. This pillar offers a predictive edge by quantifying a fighter's readiness beyond simple win/loss records.

How It Works

First, we compile a fighter's complete fight history from official records. Then, we count the number of official bouts within a rolling 365-day window. We calculate the average days between these recent fights and contrast this figure with the fighter's long-term average to generate the final density score.

Methodology

The primary metric is the Workload Density Score (WDS), calculated as: (Career Avg Days Between Fights / Last 12 Months Avg Days Between Fights) * (Fights in Last 12 Months / 3). A score above 1.5 suggests high activity; below 0.5 suggests inactivity. The time window is a rolling 365 days, and data is aggregated from official UFC records.

Edge & Advantage

It quantifies the hidden risks of over-competition and long layoffs, providing a unique angle that standard fight analysis often misses.

Key Indicators

• Fights in Last 12 Months

  high

  Total number of official bouts in the past 365 days.

• Average Recovery Time

  high

  The average number of days between a fighter's recent bouts.

• Burnout Risk Score

  medium

  A calculated score indicating risk of overtraining or accumulated damage.

Data Sources

• UFCStats

  Official fight records, dates, and outcomes for all UFC events.

• Sherdog

  Comprehensive fighter profiles and professional MMA fight histories.

• Tapology

  Crowdsourced MMA database with detailed fighter records and event data.

Example Questions This Pillar Answers

• → Will Fighter A win their upcoming match against Fighter B?
• → Will Kevin Holland fight more than 3.5 times in 2024?
• → Will a fighter coming off a 2+ year layoff win their return fight?

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